The Green Bay Packers seek to overcome the loss of Micah Parsons as they head to the windy City to face the Chicago Bears. The winner of this game will be in first place in the NFC North with two games remaining. Green Bay enters this week’s game with a 9-4-1 mark while the Bears are 10-4. The Packers lost to the Broncos last week, 34-26. The Bears defeated the Browns 31-3. Here are the keys to victory for the Packers in their Week 16 matchup with the Chicago Bears.
The Packers lead the all-time series between these two teams 108-95-6 in the regular season. The two teams first met back in 1921 when the Bears were known as the Chicago Staleys. The teams split their two playoff meetings with the last coming in the 2010 NFC Championship Game. The Packers won the first meeting between these teams two weeks ago 28-21.
Here are the keys to victory for Saturday’s game in Chicago:
Packers Keys to Victory vs Bears, Number One: Slow Down the Bears Running Game
With an inexperienced quarterback, the Bears remain a run first team. They are averaging 152.2 yards per game on the ground and have a two-headed rushing attack.
Both D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai have been productive, and both are averaging more than 4.5 yards per carry. Swift needs just 65 yards to reach 1,000 yards for the season. They complement each other well and keep each other fresh by splitting the carries.
The Bears offensive line excels at run blocking and the Packers banged up defense must stand up to them. Players like Colby Wooden and Karl Brooks must stand up and not be blown off the line of scrimmage.
The Packers won’t have Parsons for the rest of the season. His speed and ability to chase down runners on the opposite side of the field will be missed. Quay Walker and Edgerrin Cooper give the Packers a speedy duo of off-ball linebackers who will have to play well to slow down the Bears runners. Isaiah McDuffie gives the Packers an intelligent run stopper at linebacker.
Number Two: Force Caleb Williams to Win the Game with His Arm
Caleb Williams has a strong arm but remains inexperienced when it comes to reading defenses and throwing consistently accurate passes. Williams does a better job of improvising than he does when he can stay in the pocket and go through his progressions. He can also do damage with his legs. Williams averages five yards per rush and is third on the team with 339 rushing yards.
The Packers need to keep Williams in the pocket and not let him roll out to his right. He tends to be more accurate rolling out to his right than he is to his left. The game-clinching interception by Keisean Nixon two weeks ago came when Williams was forced to roll out to his left.
Rashan Gary, Kingsley Enagbare and the rest of the Packers pass rushers must stay in their lanes and keep contain on Williams. That would reduce his effectiveness as a passer. Ultimately, the Packers need to make Williams win this game with his arm.
Packers Keys to Victory vs Bears, Number Three: Prevent Splash Plays
Williams completes only 58 percent of his passes. He likes to throw deep downfield and make big gains. Jeff Hafley and the Packers defense emphasize keeping passes in front of them and preventing splash plays.
The Packers must force the Bears to go on long, sustained drives to earn points and then get stops in the red zone. Forcing Williams to be patient gives the Packers defense an advantage.
Number Four: Don’t Turn the Ball Over
The Bears lead the NFL in takeaways with 30 and in turnover differential with plus-20. The next highest team has plus-14.
The Bears defense gives up a lot of yards but by creating turnovers, they keep points off the board and set up their own offense with a short field.
If the Packers turn the ball over one time or fewer, they should be able to move the football on the Bears defense. With Parsons out of the lineup, the offense will have to score more points to win games.
Jordan Love has done a good job this season limiting turnovers. He’s thrown just six interceptions all season. If he can avoid picks and the Packers don’t lose fumbles, they should score plenty of points against the Bears.
Packers Keys to Victory vs Bears, Number Five: Be Balanced on Offense
Josh Jacobs aggravated his injured knee against the Broncos. He has not practiced this week but is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game. The Packers will need to establish balance on offense. That means Jacobs or backup Emanuel Wilson will need to run the football effectively.
The Bears have the league’s 23rd ranked run defense. That means the Packers should be able to move the ball on the ground. The offensive line may be without Zach Tom who suffered knee injury against Denver. Tom is the Packers best run blocker. If he can’t go, the team will face a challenge opening holes for the running game.
If Green Bay can run the football, they can set up the play action passing game.
Number Six: Protect Jordan Love
Love remains one of the most effective quarterbacks in the league when throwing from a clean pocket. The Bears pass rush ranks 24th in the league with 29 sacks through 14 games. Montez Sweat is the Bears pass rusher with 8.5 sacks. If the Packers are without Tom, the Bears will try to create a favorable matchup with Sweat going against the Packers backup right tackle.
Christian Watson has had several big games against the Bears. The Packers listed him as questionable with a chest and shoulder injury he suffered last week. Watson will try to play on Saturday. He was a limited participant in practice Wednesday and Thursday.
If Love has time to throw, he should be able to exploit the Bears secondary with Matthew Golden, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks providing him with ample targets.
Prediction:
For the second time in three weeks, first place in the NFC North will be at stake while these two rivals meet. The Packers controlled the game in the first half two weeks ago, but the Bears staged a comeback after halftime that fell just short.
The numerous injuries the Packers suffered against the Broncos will hurt the team just enough to allow the Bears to pull off a last-minute win.
Bears 30, Packers 27
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