The Green Bay Packers return home to close out the 2024 NFL regular season against the Chicago Bears. The Packers are 11-5 on the season while the Bears are 4-12. Green Bay lost to the Vikings 27-25 last Sunday in Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Bears fell to the Seahawks 6-3. It was their 10th consecutive loss. Here are the keys to victory for the Packers in their Week 18 matchup with the Bears.

The Packers lead the all-time series between these two teams 107-94-6 in the regular season. The Packers have won the last 11 games between the teams including this season’s first meeting which they won 20-19. The two teams first met in 1921 when the Bears were known as the Chicago Staleys. The two teams split their two playoff games.

Here are the keys to victory for Sunday’s game at Lambeau Field:

Packers Keys to Victory vs Bears, Number One: Adjust to Quick Release Passes

The first time these two teams met, the Bears were able to move the football by using quick release passes that neutralized the Packers pass rush. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams had one of his better games this season.

Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has to expect more of the same from the Bears offense on Sunday. The Packers need to jam receivers at the line of scrimmage and anticipate that the Bears will try to release the ball quickly again in the rematch.

If the Packers can shut down these short, quick release passes, they will take away what the Bears did best against them in the first game and force Chicago into plays that their young quarterback will have more difficulty executing.

Number Two: Get Pressure on Caleb Williams

If Williams has to hold the ball longer, the Packers then need to get pressure on the quarterback. Like most rookie signal callers already has a tendency to hold the ball for too long. He’s already been sacked 67 times this season.

The Packers pass rush has been very inconsistent this year. They had three sacks in the first meeting between the teams. Edgerrin Cooper adds another player who can rush the passer. Kingsley Enagbare and Rashan Gary will need to provide pressure off the edge. The status of Brenton Cox (foot, did not practice Wednesday) and Devonte Wyatt (concussion) remains uncertain for Sunday. Not having either player would hurt the pass rush.

Hafley must figure out ways to get pressure on Williams and should be able to do that against this struggling offensive line. Showing different blitz packages and looks to give opposing coaches more to think about in the postseason would be a nice bonus as well.

Packers Keys to Victory vs Bears, Number Three: Contain D’Andre Smith

The pass rush will be more formidable if the Bears are forced into must-throw situations. That means containing Chicago running back D’Andre Smith who leads the Bears with 894 yards rushing. He is averaging just 3.8-yards per carry, however, in part due to the struggles of the blockers in front of him.

Williams is the Bears next leading rusher, and the Packers will need to try to contain him and not let the quarterback beat them with his legs.

The Green Bay defense ranks sixth in the league and gives up just 100.4-yards per game. In the first meeting, the Pack held Swift to 71 yards on 14 carries but that included a 39-yards touchdown run.

If the Packers contain the Chicago running game, it will be a long day for Williams and the Bears offense.

Number Four: Protect Jordan Love

The Bears are 18th in the league with 37 sacks and they do it by committee. Montez Sweat leads the team with 5.5 sacks followed by Gervon Dexter with five. Seven different players have three or more sacks for the Bears this season.

The Packers offensive line has done a great job of protecting the quarterback this season. Jordan Love and Malik Willis have been sacked just 19 times in 16 games.

Expect tackles Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom to keep Sweat at bay. The rest of the offensive line will need to anticipate and handle the blitzes and stunts the Bears throw their way.

Keeping Love healthy and ready for the playoffs will be paramount for the Packers.

Packers Keys to Victory vs Bears, Number Five: Establish the Running Game

The Packers running game remains one of the best in the league. They currently rank fifth and average 144.6-yards per game. The Bears rushing defense ranks 27th in the league and gives up 133.4 yards per game on the ground.

Josh Jacobs needs 15 yards to reach 1,300 for the season. He has run for a touchdown in seven straight games, something no Packers running back has done since 1960. Don’t be surprised if Jacobs only plays part of the game, especially if the Pack takes an early lead. That will mean more work for Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks if Brooks is ready to play. He was limited in practice Wednesday due to an ankle injury.

The Packers should be able to run the football on the Bears. If they do, it will open things up for the Packers passing game.

Number Six: Get the Pass Defense Settled

The Packers announced on New Year’s Day that Jaire Alexander would not return this season as he will undergo surgery on his injured knee. The Packers secondary must now figure out how to best defend the pass without Alexander in the playoffs. This is their final dress rehearsal for that task.

The Packers may choose to keep rookie safety Evan Williams out of this game so he’s as healthy as possible for the playoffs. He did not practice Wednesday due to a quad injury.

The Bears have solid receivers with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze being their top three. The trio have not always been thrilled with the play of their rookie quarterback.

The Packers will matchup Carrington Valentine and Keisean Nixon on the perimeter and Javon Bullard in the slot if everyone is healthy. Safety Zayne Anderson left last week’s game with a concussion and missed practice on Wednesday. That will test the team’s depth at safety.

Look for lots of press coverage with zone defenses behind it. Quay Walker missed practice Wednesday with an ankle injury. If he can play, it helps the Packers pass defense to cover the middle of the field.

The Packers will face some tough receivers in the playoffs. This will be an opportunity to determine the best way to play pass defense without Alexander.

Prediction:

The Packers hope to wrap this game up early and play some reserves in the second half. How invested some of the Bears players will be in this season finale after 10 straight losses remains to be seen.

The Packers want to take care of business in front of their home fans and stay healthy. Ending the regular season on a winning note would give them a little momentum heading into the postseason.

Green Bay is clearly the more talented team, but they still need to take care of business. They should get their 12th straight win over the Bears on Sunday.

Packers 33, Bears 13

 

Follow Gil Martin on Twitter @GilPackers

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