The Green Bay Packers return to the playoffs despite ending the season on a four-game losing streak. They will face the Chicago Bears for the third time this season. If the Packers beat the Bears, they will head to Seattle to face the Seahawks next week. If they lose, their season is over. Green Bay finished the season game with a 9-7-1 mark while the Bears are 11-6. The Packers lost to the Vikings last week, 16-3. The Bears lost to the Lions 19-16. Here are the keys to victory for the Packers in their wild card matchup with the Chicago Bears.
The Packers lead the all-time series between these two teams 108-96-6 in the regular season. The two teams first met back in 1921 when the Bears were known as the Chicago Staleys. The teams split their two playoff meetings with the last coming in the 2010 NFC Championship Game. These rivals split their two meetings this season with each club winning at home.
Here are the keys to victory for Saturday’s game in Chicago:
Packers Keys to Victory vs Bears, Number One: Stop the Bears from Running the Ball
The strength of the Bears remains the running game. They rank third in the NFL with an average of 144.5 yards per game on the ground. De’Andre Swift remains the top back, but Kyle Monangai gets plenty of carries as the change of pace back.
Swift ran for 1,087 yards on 223 carries, an average of 4.9-yards per rush. Monangai added 783 yards on 169 rushes, an average of 4.6-yards per attempt. They complement each other well and keep each other fresh by splitting the carries.
The Packers run defense has really struggled without Devonte Wyatt and Micah Parsons. They will need players like Colby Wooden, Isaiah McDuffie, Quay Walker and Edgerrin Cooper to step up and stymie the Chicago running game. If the Bears run the ball as well as the Ravens did two weeks ago, this game could be over in a hurry.
Number Two: Keep Caleb Williams in the Pocket
Caleb Williams has a strong arm, but his throwing remains inconsistent and erratic. He seems to do his best when improvising but struggles more when he needs to stay in the pocket and go through his progressions. Williams remains a dangerous runner as well. He gained 388 yards on 77 carries this season which places him third on the team. The former USC star can pick up key first downs by scrambling and can extend plays. When he does that, he excels.
The Packers need to keep Williams in the pocket and not let him roll out to his right. He tends to be more accurate rolling out to his right than he is to his left.
Rahsan Gary, Kingsley Enagbare and the rest of the Packers pass rushers must stay in their lanes and keep contain on Williams. The Packers could also utilize either Walker or Cooper as a spy if they stay in zone coverage.
Packers Keys to Victory vs Bears, Number Three: Prevent Splash Plays
Williams completed only 58.1 percent of his passes this season. He likes to throw deep downfield and make big gains. Jeff Hafley and the Packers defense emphasize keeping passes in front of them and preventing splash plays.
The Packers must force the Bears to go on long, sustained drives to earn points and then get stops in the red zone. Forcing Williams to be patient gives the Packers defense an advantage and increases the possibility of mistakes.
Number Four: Don’t Turn the Ball Over
The Bears lead the NFL in takeaways with 33 and in turnover differential with plus-22. The next highest team has plus-17.
The Bears defense gives up a lot of yards but by creating turnovers, they keep points off the board and set up their own offense with a short field.
If the Packers turn the ball over one time or fewer, they should be able to move the football on the Bears defense. With the defense missing key players, the offense will have to score more points to win games.
Jordan Love has done a good job this season limiting turnovers. He’s thrown just six interceptions all season. If he can avoid picks and the Packers don’t lose fumbles, they should score plenty of points against the Bears.
Packers Keys to Victory vs Bears, Number Five: Be Balanced on Offense
Josh Jacobs took last week off in an attempt to get as healthy as possible. He was slowed by a knee injury in recent weeks which limited his effectiveness. The Packers will need to establish balance on offense. That means Jacobs and the other Green Bay backs will need to run the football effectively.
The Bears have the league’s 27th ranked run defense. That means the Packers should be able to move the ball on the ground. Getting right tackle Zach Tom back should be a big boost to the running game. Tom grades out as the team’s best run blocker according to Pro Football Focus.
If Green Bay can run the football, they can set up the play action passing game and slow down the Bears pass rush. Jacobs also gives the Packers a very effective weapon in the red zone.
Number Six: Protect Jordan Love
Love remains one of the most effective quarterbacks in the league when throwing from a clean pocket. The Bears pass rush ranks 26th in the league with 35 sacks this season. Montez Sweat is the Bears pass rusher with 10 sacks. The Bears like to mix up their blitz packages because they struggle to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Christian Watson has played well against the Bears and should be able to exploit the 22nd ranked Chicago secondary. The Bears have ruled out cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson for Saturday while Kyler Gordon remains questionable with a groin injury. Players like Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks should be able to take advantage of the lack of depth in the Bears secondary if Love has time to throw.
Prediction:
This will be the third and deciding meeting between these two teams. The Packers outplayed Chicago in both of the first two games, but the Packers let the second game slip through their fingers. The Bears lost their last two games while the Pack has lost their last four.
The Packers have the edge at quarterback. If they don’t lose the turnover battle, they should be able to move the football against the Bears. Stopping the run will be critical. So will be scoring touchdowns in the red zone.
Even with their injuries, the Packers are the better team. It won’t be easy, but they should find a way to win.
Packers 24, Bears 21
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