The Green Bay Packers play a rare Thanksgiving home game Thursday night as they host the Miami Dolphins at Lambeau Field. The Packers are 8-3 on the season while the Dolphins are 5-6. Green Bay soundly defeated the San Francisco 49ers last week 38-10. Meanwhile, the Dolphins thumped the New England Patriots 34-15 to win their third straight game. Here are the keys to victory for the Packers in their Week 13 matchup with the Miami Dolphins.

The Packers trail the all-time series between these two teams 10-6-0 in the regular season. The two teams first met in 1971. The Packers and Dolphins have never met in the postseason.

Here are the keys to victory for Thursday’s game at Lambeau Field:

Packers Keys to Victory vs Dolphins, Number One: Contain Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle

The Dolphins love speed and they have two fast receivers in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Hill may be the fastest wideout in the NFL and he’s a threat to break a big play any time he gets his hands on the football. He’s tied for the team lead with 49 catches and leads the team with 571 yards. Waddle has 41 receptions for 548 yards.

The Packers are likely to be without Jaire Alexander who is their best cover corner due to a knee injury. That makes covering Hill and Waddle more difficult. Look for Jeff Hafley to utilize more zone defenses. Carrington Valentine, Keisean Nixon, and Eric Stokes will need to step up on the perimeter with deep help likely to come from safety Xavier McKinney.

It won’t be easy to stop these dangerous receivers and tight end Jonnu Smith, but the Packers need to limit their effectiveness and limit big plays. Making the Dolphins go on long drives to score would make things tougher for the Miami offense.

Number Two: Establish the Running Game

By now it must be clear that the Packers offense starts with the running game. Josh Jacobs is the catalyst of the offense, and the Packers will need to establish the run to win on Thursday night.

Jacobs did a great job of making tacklers miss last week despite the fact that most of his runs were in the middle of the field.

The Packers are third in the NFL with 151.6 rushing yards per game. The Dolphins defense ranks ninth in the league and is allowing 106.9 yards per game on the ground.

The Packers will need their interior offensive line with Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers and Sean Rhyan, to battle Calais Campbell and Zach Sieler who provide the Dolphins with good defense against the run.

The Packers may also need more contributions from Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks after Jacobs had such a heavy workload last Sunday and we have a short week to prepare for this game.

Packers Keys to Victory vs Dolphins, Number Three: Protect Jordan Love

The Packers offensive line has done a good job of protecting the quarterback so far this season. Packers quarterbacks have only been sacked 15 times in 11 games this season.

Miami is 26th in the league with 21 sacks. Campbell and Sieler are tied for the team lead with four sacks each. Emmanuel Ogbah and Chop Robinson are close behind with 3.5.

If Jordan Love has time to throw, he can find his receivers downfield. The Packers will need Christian Watson and Jayden Reed to step up this week with Romeo Doubs unlikely to play after entering concussion protocol during last Sunday’s win over the 49ers.

Number Four: Get Pressure on Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa is a dangerous passer and runner. When he is healthy, the Dolphins offense is much more dangerous and productive.

The Packers have struggled to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season unless they send linebackers or defensive backs on blitzes. If Edgerrin Cooper isn’t ready to play, the Packers will be missing one of their better blitzers.

Rashan Gary has come on in recent weeks. While he hasn’t been dominant, the former Michigan star has at least a half sack in each of his last three games.

The Dolphins have allowed 27 sacks in 11 games. Tagovailoa is much more dangerous when he has time to throw.

The Packers will also need to set up a spy against Tua. Tagovailoa remains a dangerous threat when he leaves the pocket both as a passer and as a runner. Quay Walker will most likely fill that role most of the time.

Packers Keys to Victory vs Dolphins, Number Five: Score Touchdowns in the Red Zone

The Packers have struggled in the red zone most of the season. Last week, they scored five touchdowns in five trips inside the San Francisco 20-yard line.

The key for the Packers in the red zone last week was running the football. Matt LaFleur kept things simple and handed off to Jacobs. He responded with three rushing touchdowns.

The Dolphins have an explosive offense which is capable of scoring quickly. The Packers cannot afford to settle for field goals or leave points on the table against Miami. If they continue to improve in the red zone, they have a good chance of winning the game.

Number Six: Get the Ball to Tucker Kraft More Often

Tight end Tucker Kraft needs to get more targets in this game. That includes inside the red zone where he scored a touchdown in large part because he is so difficult to tackle one-on-one.

With Doubs unlikely to be in the lineup, Kraft will need to pick up some of the slack. Check down passes to Kraft are also very effective because he breaks tackles and runs so well after the catch. Getting Kraft more involved in the passing game will help the Packers move the ball without needing a lot of time to throw downfield.

Prediction:

The Dolphins have won three straight games and are better than their 5-6 record. If Tua had been healthy all season, Miami would likely be battling Buffalo for the AFC East crown. They are still a wild card contender in the AFC but need a strong finish.

The fact that this game is in Green Bay will be a big help for the Packers. The cold weather and short week will both benefit the Packers.

This game will be close, but the Packers will win the turnover battle and the football game.

 

Packers 24, Dolphins 21

 

 

Follow Gil Martin on Twitter @GilPackers

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