The Green Bay Packers return home to Lambeau Field to face the Minnesota Vikings for the first time this season. Green Bay enters this week’s game with a 6-3-1 mark while the Vikings are 4-6. The Packers defeated the Giants on the road last week, 27-20. The Vikings fell to the Bears 19-17. Here are the keys to victory for the Packers in their Week 12 matchup with the Minnesota Vikings.
The Packers lead the all-time series between these two teams 65-59-3 in the regular season. The two teams first met during the regular season in 1961 when the Vikings entered the NFL. The two teams have split their two postseason meetings.
Here are the keys to victory for Sunday’s game at Lambeau Field:
Packers Keys to Victory vs Vikings, Number One: Contain Justin Jefferson
Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine will have their hands full with Justin Jefferson. The Vikings star receiver leads the team with 56 catches for 747 yards and has just two touchdowns. These “off” numbers are more about the team’s quarterback issues than they are about Jefferson.
The Packers also have to be concerned about Jordan Addison who can also be a dangerous receiver. Addison has just 28 catches, but like Jefferson, he has done damage to the Packers before.
The Green Bay defense will likely be zone heavy and two-high, trying to prevent big gains and make the Vikings be patient. Expect the Packers to have safety help on Jefferson for most of the game.
Number Two: Get Pressure on J.J. McCarthy Early and Often
Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy may someday develop into a great NFL quarterback, but he’s not there yet. While this is officially his second season, McCarthy missed the entire season last year due to injury, so he’s essentially a rookie on the field.
The Packers need to keep McCarthy from getting comfortable. Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley needs to disguise his coverages and blitz packages, so McCarthy has to think and can’t get into a groove. We’ve seen him lead some late-game comebacks when he’s moving quickly and gets into his comfort zone, so the Packers can’t let him get that way.
Micah Parsons should have a good game against a struggling Vikings offensive line which has already allowed 34 sacks this season. The Packers also need to get Rashan Gary and Devonte Wyatt back on track. The Packers may have Lukas Van Ness healthy again after he’s missed several games, which should help the pass rush.
Packers Keys to Victory vs Vikings, Number Three: Don’t Let Aaron Jones Get Revenge
Former Packers running back Aaron Jones would love nothing more than to have a big game against his former team. The Vikings running game ranks 25th in the league in yards per game, but they don’t run often late in games because they are often trailing.
The duo of Jones and Jordan Mason gives the Vikings two solid runners. Mason averages 4.5 yards per carry, Jones 4.9.
The Packers run defense has been inconsistent recently. They did a great job against the Eagles two weeks ago but struggled last Sunday against the Giants. The Vikings offensive line has injury issues and has been inconsistent. The Packers need to contain the running game and force the Vikings into obvious passing situations. Make McCarthy win this game with his arm.
Number Four: Read the Blitzes of Brian Flores
Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores likes to disguise his blitzes and send different people from different spots on the field on nearly every play. It will be a challenge for Jordan Love and the Packers offensive line to figure out who is bringing pressure and where to throw the ball against this defense.
Giving Chris Brooks more playing time in this game would make sense because he is the best Packers running back in pass protection.
If Love can get the ball away quickly and to the right receiver, he could be in for a very big day. If the Vikings get to him, however, that could disrupt the Green Bay offense’s rhythm and force turnovers.
The chess match between Love and Matt LaFleur on one side and Flores on the other will be a great game within the game to watch.
Packers Keys to Victory vs Vikings, Number Five: Get Christian Watson More Involved
Chrisitan Watson gives the Packers their best deep threat. His size and speed should spell trouble for the Minnesota secondary.
Love likes to take deep shots downfield and Watson provides the best target for those. The Packers can also use Watson as a decoy and open up space on short or intermediate passes that become vacated when the safety follows Watson downfield.
Getting Matthew Golden more involved in the offense would also be a great way for the rookie to start his second half of the season.
Number Six: Establish the Running Game
The Vikings run defense ranks 22nd in the league in yards allowed per game with 127.0. That is partially due to teams running the ball late to protect leads. The Minnesota defense is only allowing an average of 4.1-yards per attempt.
The Packers may be without Josh Jacobs this week after he suffered a bruised knee against the Giants last Sunday. If Jacobs does play, expect him to be limited and maybe only play when the Packers get near the goal line or are in short yardage situations.
Even if Jacobs doesn’t play, the Packers should be able to balance their offense with a combination of Emanuel Wilson and Brooks. Running the ball effectively can also prevent the Vikings from teeing off on Love.
Prediction:
The Vikings are struggling especially on offense, but they are also desperate and need to string together a few wins to have a chance to make the playoffs.
McCarthy has talent but is still raw. The Packers have to make sure he doesn’t have his coming out party on Sunday at Lambeau Field.
If Love and LaFleur handle the blitz and the defense doesn’t allow the Vikings splash plays, the Packers should win this game.
Packers 27, Vikings 23
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