The Green Bay Packers head to the Twin Cities to play the Minnesota Vikings in a game that could have a big impact on the playoff seeding for both teams. The Packers are 11-4 on the season while the Vikings are 13-2. Green Bay blanked the Saints 34-0 last Monday night. Meanwhile, the Vikings edged the Seahawks 27-24. Here are the keys to victory for the Packers in their Week 17 matchup with the Minnesota Vikings.
The Packers lead the all-time series between these two teams 65-58-3 in the regular season. Minnesota won the first meeting this season 31-29. The two teams first met in 1961 when the Vikings entered the league. The two teams split their two playoff games.
Here are the keys to victory for Sunday’s game in Minnesota:
Packers Keys to Victory vs Vikings, Number One: Contain Justin Jefferson
Justin Jefferson gives the Vikings one of the most dangerous weapons in the game. He already has 92 catches for 1,387 yards and 10 touchdowns this season with two games remaining.
Jefferson has elite speed to get deep, great hands, and runs precise patterns. He has been a game-changer for the Vikings.
The Packers have been without their top cover corner, Jaire Alexander, for the second half of the season. He’s played only 10 snaps since injuring his knee on the final play of the Packers October 27th win over the Jaguars.
Alexander and Jefferson have had some great matchups over the years, but Jaire’s status for this and any game remains up in the air. Even if he’s active, it’s not clear how many snaps Alexander will be able to play and how effective he will be.
Without Alexander, the Packers will rely on Carrington Valentine, Eric Stokes, and Keisean Nixon at cornerback. The Packers will try to bump Jefferson at the line and keep him in front of them to limit his splash plays.
Jefferson will likely get his share of catches, but the Packers have to limit his impact. Number two receiver Jordan Addison remains dangerous and cannot be ignored. The Packers secondary will have their hands full on Sunday.
Number Two: Get Pressure on Sam Darnold
The Vikings offensive line is their Achilles heel and has allowed 45 sacks so far this season. The Packers pass rush has improved in recent weeks thanks to the return of Edgerrin Cooper from injury and better play by Kingsley Enagbare, Devonte Wyatt, Rashan Gary, and Brenton Cox.
The right side of the Minnesota offensive line is vulnerable with guard Dalton Risner and tackle Brian O’Neill. Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley likes to disguise his blitzes and make offenses guess who is rushing the quarterback and who is dropping into coverage. He needs to take advantage of the Vikings weaknesses to get Darnold off his game. That may be the best way to defend against the potent Minnesota passing attack.
Packers Keys to Victory vs Vikings, Number Three: Establish the Run Early
The Packers like to set the tone by getting the football to Josh Jacobs early in the game. This will not be easy against the Vikings who have the second-ranked run defense in the league. Thus far, Minnesota has allowed just 87.1-yards per game on the ground.
The Packers rank fourth in the league with 147.3-yards rushing per game. Jacobs has gained 1,216 yards on the ground and has scored 13 rushing touchdowns. His strength is running between the tackles.
Matt LaFleur also uses his receivers frequently on jet sweeps and end arounds to keep defenses off balance. Jayden Reed, Bo Melton, and Christian Watson get the majority of those carries.
This is strength against strength. The Packers interior offensive line with center Josh Myers and guards Elgton Jenkins and Sean Rhyan will have to win their battles against Harrison Phillips, Jonathan Bullard, Jerry Tillery, and Blake Cashman to free up room for Jacobs to run.
Number Four: Protect Jordan Love
This is another matchup of strength against strength. The Packers have allowed only 16 sacks in 15 games this season. The Vikings defense ranks fifth in the league with 43 sacks.
Tackles Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom will have their hands full with edge rushers Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard. They each have 11 sacks on the season. Pat Jones II has seven.
Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores likes to disguise his blitzes and send different combinations to confuse offensive linemen and quarterbacks off the snap of the ball.
The battle between Jordan Love, LaFleur, and Flores will be a fascinating chess match. If Love has time to throw, the Packers offense could take advantage of a vulnerable Vikings secondary.
Packers Keys to Victory vs Vikings, Number Five: Take Advantage of the Vikings Secondary
The Vikings secondary ranks 29th in the NFL and has allowed 248.7-yards per game. That is due in part to the leads Minnesota has held in so many games which forces opposing offenses to throw the ball to catch up. Still, the secondary is the weakness of the Vikings defense.
The Packers hope to have Watson available after he suffered a bruised knee against the Saints. His ability to stretch the field will help open things up for other receivers in addition to creating splash plays.
Reed and Dontayvion Wicks can also get downfield while Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft excel at shorter patterns in the middle of the field.
Vikings cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Byron Murphy will have their hands full with the Packers receivers.
Number Six: Be Better in the Red Zone
These two teams are very evenly matched so the team that does better in the red zone will likely win the game. For the Packers, that means a heavy dose of Jacobs and Kraft once they get inside the 20.
The Vikings will utilize former Packers running back Aaron Jones and Jefferson most frequently in the red zone.
The two offenses are fairly evenly matched. The Vikings rank 9th in the league in the red zone with 60.4 percent touchdowns. The Packers are close behind with 59.7 percent and rank 11th in the league. The Packers have improved in the past six games since changing their red zone strategy.
Defensively, the Vikings rank 14th in the league after permitting touchdowns 53.8 percent of the time. The Packers are 20th in the NFL, allowing touchdowns 60 percent of the time.
The team that converts more frequently in the red zone will likely win this game.
Prediction:
These teams are evenly matched and could meet again in the postseason. The Vikings still have a chance to win the division if they beat the Packers and then defeat Detroit in their season finale. That would earn them a first-round playoff bye.
The Packers want to possibly become the fifth seed and don’t want to fall to the seventh seed. They also want to beat another NFC contender after losing to Detroit twice and the Eagles and Vikings once.
The Vikings always seem to find a way to win close games, and they will again on Sunday, but this one will go down to the wire.
Vikings 38, Packers 35
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