The Green Bay Packers return home to face the New Orleans Saints in a game that could clinch a playoff berth for the Packers and eliminate the Saints from postseason contention. The Packers are 10-4 on the season while the Saints are 5-9. Green Bay defeated the Seahawks 30-13 last Sunday night. Meanwhile, the Saints lost to the Washington Commanders 20-19. Here are the keys to victory for the Packers in their Week 16 matchup with the New Orleans Saints.

The Packers lead the all-time series between these two teams 18-10-0 in the regular season. The two teams first met in 1968. The two teams have never met in the postseason.

Here are the keys to victory for Monday night’s game at Lambeau Field:

Packers Keys to Victory vs Saints, Number One: Contain Alvin Kamara

Running backs like Alvin Kamara have often given the Packers fits. He leads the team in rushing yards with 950 and is catches with 68.

Kamara left last week’s loss to Washington groin injury. His status for Monday night remains uncertain and he did not practice on Thursday. If he can’t go, Kendre Miller would take over as the Saints lead back.

The Packers run defense has been much better this season. They are 9th in the league and allow just 105 yards per game on the ground. They did a good job of shutting down other elusive backs like San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey and Miami’s DeVon Achane.

Edgerrin Cooper has the speed to stay with Kamara if he plays. If the Packers can shut down Kamara or Miller, they can force the inexperienced Saints quarterback into must-pass situations.

Number Two: Get Pressure on Spencer Rattler

Since Derek Carr will not be ready to play, Spencer Rattler is expected to get the start at quarterback for the Saints. Rattler has completed just 57.5 percent of his passes this season in four games and is averaging just 5.9-yards per attempt.

The rookie fifth-round pick out of South Carolina lacks experience. Rattler’s elusiveness remains his best asset at this stage in his career. He can be dangerous when he scrambles out of the pocket.

The Packers need to get pressure on Rattler to reduce his effectiveness as a passer. They also must use a spy to make sure Rattler doesn’t gain significant yardage when he is pressured. Cooper is the most likely spy.

Last week, Green Bay recorded seven sacks against Seattle. Kingsley Enagbare led the way with two sacks. Rashan Gary has been getting more pressure on opposing quarterbacks in the last four games. The Packers need this to continue.

Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has used disguised blitz combinations to confuse opposing quarterbacks. Expect that strategy to continue against the inexperienced Rattler on Monday night.

Packers Keys to Victory vs Saints, Number Three: Establish the Run Early

Green Bay set the tone last week on their opening drive by running the ball with Josh Jacobs seven times on a 10-play drive. Two of the other plays on the drive were passes to Jacobs.

The Packers are a run-first team now and they use the run to set up the passing game.

The Saints defense has struggled this season against the run. They rank 27th in the league and are allowing 134.4 yards per game. They are also permitting 4.9 yards per rush which also ranks near the bottom of the league.

The player the Packers blockers need to account for most is linebacker Demario Davis. He leads the team with 104 total tackles. Center Josh Myers and guards Elgton Jenkins and Sean Rhyan will have to account for Davis on most plays.

The Packers should be able to move the ball on the ground against the Saints defense. Look for Jacobs to have another fast start on Monday night, especially if the weather is a factor.

Number Four: Protect Jordan Love

The Saints pass rush ranks 12th in the league with 37 sacks while the Packers offensive line ranks near the top of the league at protecting the quarterback. Jordan Love and Malik Willis have been sacked just 16 times in 14 games.

Defensive tackle Bryan Bresee leads the Saints with 7.5 sacks. That will mean Myers, Jenkins, and Rhyan will be most responsible for slowing him down. Ends Carl Granderson and Chase Young are close behind with 5.5 sacks each. Packers tackles Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom will have to block Granderson and Young and give Love enough time to throw the football.

If he does, he should be able to take advantage of a struggling New Orleans defensive backfield.

Packers Keys to Victory vs Saints, Number Five: Take Advantage of the Saints Secondary

The Saints do have some talent in the secondary with cornerback Alontae Taylor and safety Tyrann Mathieu leading the way. But the Packers have more receiving weapons than the Saints can handle if Love has time to throw.

The Packers should look to get deep passes to Christian Watson while finding tight end Tucker Kraft and receiver Romeo Doubs on shorter patterns over the middle. Matt LaFleur needs to make sure Jayden Reed gets enough targets because he can be a difference maker.

The Saints defense ranks 28th in the league against the pass, giving up 242.2 yards per game. Love and company should be able to exploit these matchups.

Number Six: Win the Turnover Battle

The Packers are tied for 5th in the NFL with a plus-10 turnover differential. The Saints, meanwhile, are 16th in the league with a plus-one.

The Saints will need to win the turnover battle to have a chance to win the game. In fact, they may even need to win it by two or more.

Love has done a better job of protecting the football since the Packers bye week. If that continues and the Pack doesn’t lose many fumbles, Green Bay should win the game.

Prediction:

The Packers seemingly have every advantage in this game. They are better in every major area of the game and should be able to move the football on the Saints. They are also at home and facing a dome team at Lambeau at night in December.

The Packers need to execute well and not take the Saints lightly. If they do, they should win this game by a comfortable margin.

 

Packers 35, Saints 20

 

 

 

Follow Gil Martin on Twitter @GilPackers

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