The Green Bay Packers return home to face the San Francisco 49ers in an important NFC clash. The Packers are 7-3 on the season while the 49ers are 5-5. Green Bay pulled off a last second win last week in Chicago 20-19. Meanwhile, the 49ers fell to the Seattle Seahawks 20-17 last week. Here are the keys to victory for the Packers in their Week 12 matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.
The Packers lead the all-time series between these two teams 34-28-1 in the regular season. The two teams first met in 1950 when the 49ers entered the league from the AAFC. The 49ers have won six of the 10 postseason matchups between the two clubs including last season’s win in the NFC Divisional Playoffs.
Here are the keys to victory for Sunday’s game at Lambeau Field:
Packers Keys to Victory vs 49ers, Number One: Contain Christian McCaffrey and the Running Game
The Packers run defense ranks 14th in the league and is giving up 119.6 yards per game on the ground. Opponents are also averaging 4.4-yard per carry against the Packers.
The 49ers have beaten the Packers in recent years by running the ball well. They rank 7th in the league with 147.8-yards rushing per game and average five yards per carry.
Green Bay’s run defense has been inconsistent. Some games, the defense has done very well at slowing down the run, in other games, they have been gashed by opposing running games.
The 49ers finally got Christian McCaffrey back into the lineup. The all-purpose back is not back to full strength, but he remains dangerous both as a runner and a receiver. The Packers will have to keep him in check and prevent him from making big plays.
In McCaffrey’s absence, Joran Mason has done a very good job running the football. He has gained 703 yards and is averaging 5.1-yards per carry.
Keeping the 49ers running game from moving the ball consistently will be critical for the Packers defense. It sets up San Francisco’s play-action passing game and takes pressure off Brock Purdy.
Number Two: Establish the Running Game
The Packers rank fourth in the NFL, averaging 149.9 yards per game. Josh Jacobs leads the way with 838 yards and a 4.8-yard average per rush. He does his best work running between the tackles.
The Packers offense is most effective when they emphasize the running game. Head coach Matt LaFleur must stick with the run and not get discouraged if things aren’t clicking right away.
The San Francisco defense ranks eighth in the league in yards allowed per game and ninth in average yards per attempt.
The interior trio of Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers, and Sean Rhyan will have to win their battle against Mallek Collins, Jordan Elliott, and middle linebacker Fred Warner who has cooled off after a hot start to the season. Warner is an elite player who still must be accounted for on every play.
Packers Keys to Victory vs 49ers, Number Three: Protect Jordan Love
The Packers will need to make sure quarterback Jordan Love has time to throw. Tackles Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom have done a very good job protecting the quarterback. The Packers have only allowed 13 sacks in 10 games this season.
San Francisco will likely be without their best pass rusher, Nick Bosa. Bosa has seven sacks but missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with a hip/oblique injury. Even if he plays Sunday, he will likely be far from 100 percent. If he can’t go, Sam Okuayinonu is likely to take the majority of snaps. He has three sacks so far this season.
If Love has time to throw, he should be able to find some open receivers against the 49ers secondary.
Number Four: Contain George Kittle and Deebo Samuel
The 49ers will be without the injured Brandon Aiyuk, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have dangerous receiving weapons. Deebo Samuel remains a dynamic player and there aren’t many tight ends better than George Kittle who leads the team with 43 catches and seven receiving touchdowns.
The Packers will have to find a way to contain Kittle and Samuel but may not have all their defensive weapons available.
Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper missed Thursday’s practice due to a hamstring injury. His speed would be a big asset in trying to slow Kittle.
Meanwhile, Jaire Alexander only played 10 snaps last week against the Bears and missed Wednesday and Thursday’s practices due to a knee injury. He would likely be lined up opposite Samuel on most plays.
If Alexander can’t play or is limited, Carrington Valentine and Keisean Nixon would be the next up to try to stop Samuel. That’s a big drop in talent and performance.
Packers Keys to Victory vs 49ers, Number Five: Pressure Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy established himself as a starter in this league by managing games well and not making mistakes. This season, he has already thrown eight interceptions in 10 games which is uncharacteristically high for him.
The 49ers offensive line has allowed 20 sacks in 10 games while the Green Bay defense has struggled to get pressure on quarterbacks without resorting to blitzes and stunts.
49ers left tackle Trent Williams did not practice Wednesday or Thursday due to an ankle injury. The Packers will try to take advantage of his backup or of Williams if he is slowed by the injury.
Rashan Gary has played better the past few games, and the Packers need him to have another strong game on Sunday. The Packers also need Brenton Cox, Arron Mosby, Kingsley Enagbare, and Lukas Van Ness to step up and show more in place of the recently traded Preston Smith.
If the Packers can pressure Purdy, they should be able to force him into making mistakes.
Number Six: Win the Turnover Battle
Both these teams are plus when it comes to turnovers. The Packers are a plus-five while San Francisco is a plus-three.
Love has thrown at least one interception in all eight games he’s played this season and needs to cut down on bad throws and poor decisions. He seemed to make better decisions last week in Chicago.
Xavier McKinney has been the Packers best defensive back when it comes to interceptions. In fact, takeaways have been a big part of the new Green Bay defense under Jeff Hafley.
The team that wins the turnover battle has a big advantage in this game which should be close and go down to the wire.
Prediction:
The Packers hope to get a measure of revenge for last year’s playoff loss. A win would have major playoff tie-breaking implications for the Packers and would really reduce the 49ers playoff odds.
The 49ers are still talented but aren’t playing up to expectations this season. The Packers have also yet to put together a signature win where they play up to their potential on both sides of the ball.
The injuries on defense create matchup problems for the Packers. Without Alexander and Cooper, the defense isn’t in the same situation. There is also a psychological component to this matchup as San Francisco usually finds a way to beat the Packers.
This one will go down to the wire, but the 49ers need it more.
49ers 27, Packers 23
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