The Green Bay Packers travel east to face the New York Giants at the Meadowlands in Week 14. The Packers enter the game with a 6-6 record while the Giants are 4-8. The Packers are coming off a 27-19 win over the Chiefs last Sunday night while the Giants are coming off their bye week. They beat the New England Patriots 10-7 in their last game. Here are six key matchups that determine who will win Monday’s Packers-Giants game.
The Packers lead the all-time series between these two teams 29-24-2 in the regular season. These two clubs first met in the regular season in 1928. The Giants won the last meeting between these teams 27-22 last year in London. The Packers lead the postseason series between the teams 5-3 including wins in the 1961 and 1962 NFL Championship Games. The last playoff meeting came after the 2016 season, a 38-13 Packers win.
Here is a look at six key factors that will determine who wins Monday’s game at the Meadowlands:
Packers Key Matchups: Number One, Contain Saquon Barkley
Running back Saquon Barkley is the most dangerous weapon in the Giants arsenal when he’s healthy. He leads the team with 697 yards rushing despite missing three games. Barkley has the speed and cutting ability to create big gains at any time. He is also a good receiver out of the backfield and is fourth on the team with 28 catches.
The Packers run defense remains a problem and is ranked 30th in the league. Green Bay allows an average of 136.3-yards per game on the ground in part because they prioritize stopping the pass.
The difference here is that Barkley is the player the defense needs to stop the most. Will Joe Barry prioritize shutting him down?
Last year, the defense did a good job of shutting down Barkley for most of the game, but he finished with 106 total yards. That included a 40-yard run and a 41-yard pass reception.
Kenny Clark, T.J. Slaton, and Devonte Wyatt will have to do a good job at the line of scrimmage to free up Quay Walker and De’Vondre Campbell to make tackles. The Packers must prevent Barkley from breaking off long gains and force the inconsistent Giants offense to earn their points with long, sustained drives.
Key Matchups: Number Two, Don’t Let Kayvon Thibodeaux Get to Jordan Love
The New York Giants defense has recorded just 21 sacks in 12 games this season, but Kayvon Thibodeaux has 11 of them.
Packers left tackles Rasheed Walker and Yosh Nijman will have the primary responsibility of blocking Thibodeaux. Walker has been playing better in recent weeks but remains more vulnerable to inside rush moves than a fast burst off the edge.
Look for the Packers to throw some quick release passes or roll out away from Thibodeaux on some plays. They may also have an extra tight end lined up to Thibodeaux’s side to give Jordan Love more time to throw the football.
Defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence is next on the team with four sacks, but he is dealing with a hamstring injury and was listed as limited in Thursday’s practice. He may not be at full strength if he’s able to play Monday night.
Packers Key Matchups: Number Three, Run the Football Enough
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has done a good job in recent weeks of keeping the Packers running game going despite the absence of Aaron Jones.
A.J. Dillon has done a better job of running in recent weeks and Patrick Taylor is a serviceable backup.
LaFleur also kept defenses honest by running jet sweeps, reverses, and end arounds with his receivers. He has also used touch passes as a substitute for runs to get the football to his speedy receivers behind the line of scrimmage. Officially, these are pass plays, but they function as a run and help keep defenses off balance.
The Giants run defense ranks 28th in the league and is allowing 136.1-yards per game. Green Bay needs to run the ball enough to keep the Giants defense honest and to set up second and third down and manageable situations. They should be able to move the ball on the ground against the Giants.
Key Matchups: Number Four, Spread the Ball Around in the Passing Game
The Packers are unlikely to have Christian Watson in the lineup Monday after he reinjured his hamstring against the Chiefs. They are already without starting tight end Luke Musgrave who remains on IR.
The Packers still have plenty of receiving weapons and should take advantage of them. Last week, Love completed passes to nine different receivers. LaFleur should take a similar approach this week.
Romeo Doubs remains steady and a weapon on short and intermediate passes and in the red zone. Rookies Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed continue to develop and can break off longer gains. Malik Heath adds a physical element to the group and is integrating himself more into the offense.
Expect Tucker Kraft to continue to play a bigger role in the passing offense as well.
If Love is able to get more of his receivers involved in the offense, the Giants defense will struggle to contain an improving Packers passing attack.
Packers Key Matchups: Number Five, Take Advantage of the Giants Offensive Line
The Giants have allowed 69 sacks in 12 games thus far this season, which is dead last in the NFL. Considering all three quarterbacks they have are mobile, this number is particularly problematic.
The Giants may also be without starting right tackle Evan Neal who is trying to return from an ankle injury. The Giants said his availability may depend on his pain threshold.
Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, Kingsley Enagbare and Lukas Van Ness should be able to pressure Giants third string signal caller Tommy DeVito off the edge. Clark, Colby Wooden and Karl Brooks should get pressure from the interior.
The Illinois alum has not played badly statistically, but the offense hasn’t been putting up a lot of points either. The Giants have scored more than 20 points in a game just twice all season.
If the Packers can pressure DeVito, they should be able to disrupt the Giants offense.
Packers Key Matchups: Number Six, Win the Turnover Battle
One thing the Giants have done well this season is limit turnovers. Despite their dismal record, they are a plus-five in turnover differential which ties them for sixth in the league.
The Packers have improved to a plus-one ratio. The Pack cannot allow New York to win the turnover battle and get easy scores. That would help keep the game competitive and give the Giants a chance to pull off the upset.
Prediction:
The Packers cannot take this game lightly. The Giants were a playoff team last season and would love nothing more than to show a national television audience they can still be a competitive football team.
The young Packers cannot read their press clippings and think they can win without bringing their “A” game.
That being said, the Packers are the better team on both sides of the ball and should be able to win this football game.
Packers 31, Giants 14
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